COVID-19 hospital deaths that have occurred but not yet reported – update 30 May 2020.
June 2, 2020
Stavros Christofides, Jason Oke, Carl Heneghan
We have updated our Chain Ladder projections using deaths occurring up to 30 May 2020.
The overall hospital death in England that have Occurred But Not yet Reported (OBNR) estimates have been reducing and our latest estimate is now down to 250 cases. This is primarily a result of the reducing volume of hospital deaths.
The estimated number of deaths has been decreasing at around 4% per day over the last 40 days. There appears to be a low point on the 24th May, estimated at around 116 cases, which was followed by four days of increasing deaths from the 25 to 28 May. The reported numbers for the next two days, 29 May and 30 May are, however, the lowest reported to date and if sustained will bring the trend in these deaths back to the historic daily 4% reduction level. We will be watching this latest trend closely over to see whether it holds.
The table below shows the projections covering the last three weeks of deaths and also the Bootstrap standard errors for the most recent ten days. With the exception of the most recent two days where, understandably, the standard error is high, the rest reflect the uncertainty that remains beyond the first ten days of development.
| Date of |
CL Estimates |
NHS |
CL |
Bootstrap |
| Death |
26-May |
28-May |
30-May |
Reported |
OBNR |
St Error |
| 30-May |
|
|
70 |
15 |
55 |
35 |
| 29-May |
|
|
81 |
51 |
30 |
14 |
| 28-May |
|
174 |
123 |
94 |
29 |
14 |
| 27-May |
|
131 |
127 |
106 |
21 |
11 |
| 26-May |
108 |
144 |
142 |
125 |
17 |
10 |
| 25-May |
134 |
136 |
137 |
126 |
11 |
7 |
| 24-May |
110 |
117 |
116 |
108 |
8 |
6 |
| 23-May |
113 |
126 |
122 |
115 |
7 |
6 |
| 22-May |
112 |
126 |
124 |
118 |
6 |
5 |
| 21-May |
141 |
146 |
146 |
140 |
6 |
5 |
| 20-May |
153 |
156 |
155 |
149 |
6 |
|
| 19-May |
143 |
144 |
143 |
138 |
5 |
|
| 18-May |
142 |
146 |
148 |
143 |
5 |
|
| 17-May |
136 |
137 |
137 |
133 |
4 |
|
| 16-May |
165 |
166 |
168 |
163 |
5 |
|
| 15-May |
169 |
169 |
171 |
166 |
5 |
|
| 14-May |
171 |
173 |
176 |
171 |
5 |
|
| 13-May |
159 |
160 |
162 |
158 |
4 |
|
| 12-May |
179 |
181 |
182 |
178 |
4 |
|
| 11-May |
159 |
159 |
163 |
160 |
3 |
|
| 10-May |
191 |
191 |
194 |
191 |
3 |
|
AUTHORS
Stavros Christofides B.Sc, M.Phil worked in Insurance as a Manager and as a Consultant and has published papers on Loss Reserving, Insurance Pricing and Dynamic Financial Analysis. He was also an Honorary Visiting Fellow at Cass Business School, City University.
Jason Oke is a Senior Statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences and Module Coordinator for Statistical Computing with R and Stata (EBHC Med Stats), and Introduction to Statistics for Health Care Research (EBHC), as part of the Evidence-Based Health Care Programme.
Carl Heneghan is Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine, Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine and Director of Studies for the Evidence-Based Health Care Programme. (Full bio and disclosure statement here)
Disclaimer: the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked. The views expressed in this commentary represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the host institution, the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health and Social Care. The views are not a substitute for professional medical advice.
